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Future Oil Tensions

Arctic Critical

Arctic Oil Rush: The Next Great Power Conflict

As ice melts, the Arctic is estimated to hold 90 billion barrels of undiscovered oil. Russia, US, Canada, Norway, and Denmark are racing to claim territory. Russia has built 40+ military bases and tested hypersonic missiles in the region.

Russia USA Canada Norway

~90B Barrels

South China Sea Critical

South China Sea: Oil, Islands & Military Buildup

China claims 90% of the sea containing 11 billion barrels of oil. Artificial islands militarized with missiles and runways. US conducts "freedom of navigation" operations. Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia contest claims.

China USA Philippines Vietnam

~11B Barrels

Greenland High

Greenland: Trump's Strategic Resource Target

Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in acquiring Greenland, citing its vast oil, gas, and rare earth reserves. Denmark rejected offers, but US is increasing military presence. Melting ice is revealing massive untapped resources.

USA Denmark Greenland

~50B Barrels Est.

Guyana / Venezuela Critical

Essequibo Crisis: Venezuela's Territorial Claim

Venezuela claims Guyana's oil-rich Essequibo region (2/3 of Guyana). After ExxonMobil discovered 11 billion barrels, Venezuela held referendum to annex the territory. Military mobilizations on both sides, with US backing Guyana.

Venezuela Guyana ExxonMobil USA

~11B Barrels

East Mediterranean High

Eastern Mediterranean Gas Wars

Massive gas discoveries sparked disputes between Turkey, Greece, Cyprus, Israel, Egypt, and Lebanon. Turkey sent warships to block drilling. Greece and Turkey nearly clashed in 2020. Pipeline routes highly contested.

Turkey Greece Cyprus Israel

~230 TCF Gas

Strait of Hormuz Critical

Hormuz Chokepoint: Iran vs The World

21% of global oil passes through this 21-mile wide strait. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close it in response to sanctions. Tanker seizures, drone attacks, and naval standoffs occur regularly. Any closure would spike oil prices globally.

Iran USA Saudi Arabia UAE

21M bpd Transit

Falklands / Malvinas Elevated

Falklands Oil: UK-Argentina Tensions Renewed

UK drilling operations around the Falkland Islands have reignited tensions with Argentina. Potential 8.3 billion barrels offshore. Argentina claims sovereignty and has pressured companies not to drill. Military presence increased.

UK Argentina

~8.3B Barrels

Caspian Sea Elevated

Caspian Sea: Five-Way Resource Dispute

Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan dispute sea boundaries and resource rights. 2018 convention left key issues unresolved. Competing pipeline routes bypass certain countries. ~48 billion barrels at stake.

Russia Iran Azerbaijan Kazakhstan

~48B Barrels

Red Sea Critical

Red Sea Crisis: Houthi Shipping Attacks

Houthi attacks on commercial shipping have disrupted Red Sea routes carrying 12% of global trade. US and UK conducting airstrikes in Yemen. Major shipping companies rerouting around Africa, adding costs and delays to oil transport.

Houthis USA UK Iran

4.8M bpd Transit

Taiwan Strait High

Taiwan Strait: Energy Chokepoint Risk

88% of China's oil imports pass through potential conflict zones. A Taiwan blockade would disrupt global supply chains. China stockpiling reserves while building alternative pipelines through Russia and Myanmar. US increasing naval presence.

China Taiwan USA Japan

Energy Security

Emerging flashpoints where oil resources may trigger future conflicts

Oil Wars

Venezuela 2019 - Present

US Economic War & Threatened Invasion of Venezuela

The Trump administration has escalated sanctions and openly discussed military intervention to seize control of Venezuela's oil reserves - the largest proven reserves in the world at 303 billion barrels.

Sanctions Intervention Ongoing Threat

Iraq 2003 - 2011

Iraq War - Operation Iraqi Freedom

US-led invasion justified by WMD claims, widely believed to be motivated by Iraq's 145 billion barrels of oil reserves. Major oil contracts awarded to Western companies post-invasion.

Invasion Occupation ~500,000+ Deaths

Kuwait / Iraq 1990 - 1991

Gulf War - Operation Desert Storm

Iraq invaded Kuwait over oil disputes and debt. US-led coalition intervened to protect oil supplies. Saddam Hussein set 600+ Kuwaiti oil wells on fire during retreat.

Oil Fields Coalition ~100,000 Deaths

Yemen 2015 - Present

Saudi-UAE War in Yemen

Saudi Arabia and UAE coalition bombing Yemen, controlling strategic Bab el-Mandeb strait where 4.8 million barrels of oil pass daily. World's worst humanitarian crisis.

Blockade Shipping Routes ~377,000 Deaths

Libya 2011 - Present

Libyan Civil War & NATO Intervention

NATO intervention to remove Gaddafi, followed by ongoing civil war. Libya holds Africa's largest oil reserves (48B barrels). Oil production collapsed from 1.6M to near-zero bpd.

Regime Change Civil War ~30,000+ Deaths

Nigeria 1967 - Present

Niger Delta Conflict & Biafra War

Biafra secession partly driven by oil-rich region control. Ongoing insurgency in Niger Delta against oil companies and government. MEND and other groups attack pipelines.

Insurgency Resource Curse ~1-3 Million Deaths

Iran / Iraq 1980 - 1988

Iran-Iraq War

Saddam Hussein invaded Iran targeting oil-rich Khuzestan province. US supported Iraq with weapons and intelligence. Both sides targeted oil infrastructure and tankers.

Tanker War Oil Fields ~1 Million Deaths

Syria 2011 - Present

Syrian Civil War & US Oil Field Occupation

US troops remain in Syria's eastern oil fields, preventing Syrian government and Russia from accessing oil revenue. Trump openly stated: "We're keeping the oil."

Occupation Pipelines ~500,000+ Deaths

Sudan / South Sudan 1983 - Present

Sudanese Oil Wars

Decades of conflict over oil-rich regions led to South Sudan's independence. Fighting continues over pipeline routes and oil field control. Chinese and Western oil interests compete.

Secession Civil War ~2 Million Deaths

Russia / Ukraine 2022 - Present

Ukraine War & Energy Geopolitics

War disrupted global energy markets. Nord Stream pipelines sabotaged. Both sides target oil refineries. Europe cut off from Russian oil, reshaping global energy trade.

Energy War Sanctions ~100,000+ Deaths

Historical conflicts where oil resources or infrastructure were primary factors

Oil War Crimes

Venezuela Jan 2026

US Sanctions Force Venezuelan Oil Workers into Poverty

Trump administration's escalated sanctions on PDVSA have forced the shutdown of wells in the Orinoco Belt, leaving thousands of workers without income and creating a humanitarian crisis in oil-dependent communities.

Sanctions Humanitarian

Yemen Dec 2025

Saudi-UAE Coalition Strikes on Yemen Port Infrastructure

Coalition airstrikes continue to target Yemen's port facilities and fuel storage, exacerbating the world's worst humanitarian crisis. UN reports over 150,000 civilian deaths linked to the conflict.

Airstrikes Blockade

Nigeria Dec 2025

Shell Oil Spills Continue to Devastate Niger Delta Communities

Decades of oil spills in the Niger Delta have destroyed fishing grounds and farmland. Local communities report increased cancer rates and respiratory diseases while awaiting long-promised cleanup operations.

Pollution Environment

Russia / Ukraine Jan 2026

Oil Infrastructure Targeted as War Continues

Both sides continue targeting energy infrastructure. Attacks on refineries and pipelines have caused environmental disasters and civilian casualties in border regions.

War Infrastructure

Iraq Nov 2025

Legacy of Oil War: Birth Defects in Basra Continue

Medical researchers document ongoing elevated rates of birth defects and cancer in Basra linked to depleted uranium and toxic residue from US military operations during the Iraq War.

Legacy Health

Ecuador Oct 2025

Chevron Still Evades $9.5B Amazon Pollution Judgment

Indigenous communities in the Ecuadorian Amazon continue fighting for compensation after Texaco (now Chevron) contaminated their land with billions of gallons of toxic waste over decades of operations.

Lawsuit Indigenous

Information compiled from human rights organizations and verified news sources

Oil News

Bloomberg 2 hours ago

Oil Rises With OPEC+, Venezuela in Focus as New Year Kicks Off

Oil prices inched higher in early trading on January 2, the first session of 2026, as geopolitical tensions provided support after benchmarks posted steepest annual losses since 2020.

OPEC+

Reuters 5 hours ago

Trump Administration Escalates Venezuela Oil Sanctions

Washington imposed sanctions on four companies and oil tankers operating within Venezuela's sanctioned oil trade, forcing PDVSA to shut wells in the Orinoco Belt as storage fills up.

Venezuela

OilPrice 8 hours ago

OPEC+ Expected to Pause Supply Increases in Q1

Key OPEC+ members led by Saudi Arabia will convene online on Jan 4, expected to reaffirm decision to pause supply increases during the first quarter amid seasonal consumption lull.

OPEC+

CNBC 12 hours ago

Brent Crude at $61.03, WTI at $57.59 After 2025's 20% Decline

Both benchmarks fell nearly 20% in 2025, marking their worst annual performance since the pandemic-driven collapse in 2020. Analysts see 2026 as critical year for OPEC+ decisions.

Prices

IEA 18 hours ago

Global Oil Supply Expected to Exceed Demand by 3.85M bpd

The International Energy Agency forecasts supply to exceed demand by 3.85 million barrels per day in 2026, equal to nearly 4% of global consumption.

Supply

The National 24 hours ago

Saudi-UAE Crisis Over Yemen Deepens, Flights Halted at Aden

A crisis between OPEC producers Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen has deepened after flights were halted at Aden's airport, adding to regional tensions.

Geopolitics

Last updated: Jan 3, 2026 at 6:00 PM UTC